Sierra Leone’s chances of qualifying for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) are slim but still possible, given the group standings and the matches left. Here’s a breakdown of the situation and what Sierra Leone needs to do:

Current Group G Standings
1. Ivory Coast – 9 points
2. Zambia – 7 points
3. Sierra Leone – 4 points
4. Chad – 2 points

Scenarios for Qualification

Since the top two teams from each group qualify, Sierra Leone has to move up to at least second place to qualify. With two matches remaining, the maximum points Sierra Leone can achieve is 10, which would require them to win both games against Chad and Zambia.

Key Scenarios

  1. Win Both Matches: If Sierra Leone defeats both Chad and Zambia, they would end with 10 points. However, this still does not guarantee qualification, as they would need other results to go in their favor:

• If Zambia loses to Ivory Coast: Zambia would remain at 7 points, and Sierra Leone’s 10 points would be enough to take second place.
• If Zambia wins against Ivory Coast: Zambia would reach 10 points as well, and the head-to-head tiebreaker would decide which team qualifies. In this case, Sierra Leone must have a better head-to-head record against Zambia by winning their match by a significant margin.

  1. Win One, Draw One: This would put Sierra Leone at 8 points, which could only be enough if Zambia loses both their matches. If Zambia draws or wins any of their final two games, they will finish above Sierra Leone in this scenario.

  2. Draw or Lose Both Matches: In either of these cases, Sierra Leone’s chances of qualifying would effectively end, as they wouldn’t reach the necessary points to overtake Zambia.

In summary, Sierra Leone has a chance, but they are dependent on both winning their remaining matches and hoping for Zambia to drop points, particularly against Ivory Coast. Even if they do win both games, the head-to-head tiebreaker could still play a significant role if they end up with equal points with Zambia.