According to the World Bank Group (2025), Sierra Leone Country Climate and Development Report. Sierra Leone is ranked among the 15 economies most adversely affected by climate change.

The economy has at least shifted away from agricultural dominance, with agriculture’s (including forestry and fisheries) share of gross domestic product (GDP) declining to 30 percent and that of services and industry increasing to 42 percent and 26 percent, respectively, in 2023. Agriculture, which suffers from low productivity levels, employs almost half of the population.

Most labor movements out of agriculture are absorbed by the services sector, particularly in informal trade and tourism, rather than into higher-productivity industries. Weak human development, poor infrastructure and services, low capital accumulation, and economic volatility have further constrained income growth, leaving over half of the population in poverty. While the country could reach lower-middle-income status by 2032 through an ambitious reform program, it must identify ways to sustain stable and inclusive growth under a changing climate.

The report reveals that Climate change has already redefined weather and climate extremes in the country. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ranks Sierra Leone among the 15 worst-affected economies with significant declines in GDP per capita due to climate effects between 1991 and 2010.

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Regardless of global emission trends, increases in temperatures are projected through the end of the century and beyond. Sierra Leone’s annual average temperature could rise to 28°C (from its baseline of 26.5°C) by 2050 under the most pessimistic climate scenario. Sierra Leone already experiences some of the highest annual precipitation levels in the world, averaging 2,653.4 mm. Both prolonged dry spells and intensified heavy rainfall events are projected in future climate scenarios.

“Poverty and Inequality will get worse under Sierra Leone’s changing climate.” Stated in the report.

Additionally, the poorest are expected to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Assuming baseline growth performance, the effects of climate change under the dry/hot and wet/warm scenarios can increase the poverty rate between 2 and 7 percentage points more than the baseline in urban and rural areas, pushing a total of nearly 600,000 additional people into poverty by 2050.

It is important to note that this analysis offers only a partial insight into the economic and poverty damages of climate change. Damages do not consider potential positive effects from future development interventions that intrinsically support adaptation and resilience, and adverse effects are not comprehensive, as they are based on a limited number of impact channels due to data availability. challenges. Nevertheless, the analysis underscores the urgency of implementing targeted climate actions to mitigate projected impacts.

Sierra Leone Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) analyzes Sierra Leone’s socioeconomic development prospects in the context of climate change. It provides an overview of the climate and development risks facing Sierra Leone, models scenarios of select climate effects and adaptation, and proposes strategies to enhance resilience, steer the economy toward inclusive, low-carbon growth, and finance climate actions.