Sierra Leone has been ranked 43rd highest-risk among 162 countries in the 2021-22 Statistical Risk Assessment for Mass Killing done by the Early Warning Project.

The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Centre for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Dickey Centre for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.

According to the Early Warning Project, their statistical model estimates that there is a 1.8%, or approximately 1 in 54, chance of a new mass killing beginning in Sierra Leone in 2021 or 2022.

The following factors have the greatest influence on the model’s estimated risk for Sierra Leone, compared to an average country.

Infant Mortality: 9 (mortality per 1000 live births, square root)

Any Mass Killing Ever (since 1945): Has experienced mass killing since 1945

Ethnic Fractionalization: 0.8 (index measure)

Population Size: 15.9 (total population, logged)

Power Distributed by Social Group: All social groups have roughly equal political power or there are no strong ethnic, caste, linguistic, racial, religious, or regional differences to speak of. Social group characteristics are not relevant to politics.

For all Risks Factors the Early Warning Project´s  statistical model includes the following variables, sourced from publicly available data on a variety of country characteristics. See more details in their data dictionary (PDF)

Basic Country Characteristics

  • Country Age: 4.1 (years, logged)
  • Population Size: 15.9 (total population, logged)
  • Infant Mortality: 9 (mortality per 1000 live births, square root)
  • Region: Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Regime type: Democracy

Human Rights and Civil Liberties

  • State signatory of First Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: signatory
  • Freedom of Religion: Fully respected by public authorities. The population enjoys the right to practice any religious belief they choose.
  • Political Killing: Political killings are non-existent (Coded as “occurring” only when practiced systematically and typically incited and approved by top leaders of government.)
  • Freedom of Domestic Movement (Men): Yes all men have free movement
  • Freedom of Domestic Movement (Women): Yes all women have free movement
  • Freedom of Discussion: 0.8 (continuous form as provided by V-DEM)
  • Inequality in Civil Liberties — Social Group: Members of all salient social groups enjoy the same level of civil liberties
  • Inequality in Civil Liberties — Geographic Region: Not equally distributed
  • Civil Society Repression: Not repressed (Coded as “repressed” only when the government violently and actively pursues all real and even some imagined members of CSOs. They seek not only to deter the activity of such groups but to effectively liquidate them.)

War and Conflict

  • Any On-going Mass Killing: No mass killing
  • Any Mass Killing Ever (since 1945): Has experienced mass killing since 1945
  • Battle-Related Deaths: No battle deaths (total deaths, logged+1)
  • Any Coup Attempts in Past 5 Years: No coup attempt